New generation of Chinese spy satellites?

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On 31st of July 2018 China launched a satellite they call GF-11. It went into a low Earth orbit and was announced as a "member of Chinese high resolution Earth observation system".  The whole series of satellites, called GF, actually means "High definition". While the name itself doesn't mean much, as first GF satellites were launched in 2013 and various satellites have various roles with various resolutions, this one was markedly different.

News article by Science and Technology Daily, as available here, stated its ground resolution is under one meter. Now, that in itself doesn't mean much. Previously, commercial satellites from China also offer sub meter resolution. But the most interesting aspect are the images broadcast from the launch.

Shape and relative size of the satellite very much point to a satellite with a large mirror. And are quite similar to US Kennen spy satellites. Diameter of the mirror held inside could very well be 1.7 meters. If so, it would be a mirror larger than any of European spy satellites (Helios 2 for example has a 1.4 meter mirror) and second to US largest mirrors put in satellite. KH-11 Kennen sported a 2.4 meter mirror, which was also later used for space telescope Hubble.

Given the orbit of GF-11, it could offer a resolution of up to 10 cm, in best case scenario. Even at average altitude of its orbit, expected resolution would be 15 to 20 cm.

GF-11 shows great similarity with US KH-11 satellite


Another clue to plausibility of such Chinese advance is open mention of design of Hubble telescope-like module for their future space station, sporting a mirror of 2 meter diameter. Mentioned here.

One might conclude that as far as resolution goes, Chinese have approached US tech considerably. And actually, resolution is not the holy grail anymore. Certain spy missions do require it, but US has not sent a larger diameter mirror in space since Kennan like satellites in 1980s. What does seem to be the priority nowadays is launching a vast number of smaller satellites, with more modest resolution, sometimes even 1-2 m. Key being persistence and tracking over large areas, rather than identification of key objects at stationary locations.

In that regard, China has more than caught up with US when it comes to yearly launch rates, and may be closing in in total number of operational satellites as well, in a few years time.

In 2015:
US launched 4 government operated spy satellites. 2 optical and 2 ELINT.
China launched 6 govt. operated spy satellites. All optical.

In 2016:
US launched 3 government operated spy satellites. 1 Radar imaging, 1 ELINT, 1 optical.
China launched 5 govt. operated spy satellites. All optical.

In 2017:
US launched 3 government operated spy satellites. 1 ELINT, 2 optical.
China launched 11 govt. operated spy satellites. 2 optical, 9 ELINT

And so far during 2018 China has launched as many satellites as it has during entire 2017. 
Including 3 optical and 6 ELINT satellites.



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