Of Tempest and other European future fighter jets
Several weeks ago, a presentation was made by "Team Tempest". Said team is made up of mostly British companies with quite some pedigree in defense systems.
BAE Systems, which makes a lot of subsystems for F-35, which co-designed Eurofighter and which made several hi-tech demonstrator planes or stealthy mockups, like the Taranis UAV and Replica mockup.
Leonardo, Italian company which makes M-346 trainer plane, various helicopters and most importantly for Team Tempest, various avionics.
Rolls-Royce, which co-designed the engine for the Eurofighter, and is one of the world's leading engine manufacturers.
MBDA, a multinational company (mostly owned by BAE and Leonardo) which develops various missile systems.
They showed a mock up of a fighter plane without a name. Erroneously, people are calling the fighter "Tempest". (That name may happen some day, but right now it is premature) The unveiling was really a part of UK Ministry of Defence announcement of their Combat Air Strategy. That document talks about various future developments.
(Document available here: UK Mod Combat Air Strategy)
What it does also show is that Team Tempest is a team made by UK MoD, comprised not only of said defense companies, but also of personnel from RAF Rapid Capabilities Office and UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory. It was tasked to develop concepts and later on technologies for Future Combat Air System initiative, back in 2015.
Perhaps a bit confusingly, same name was used for a Franco-British unmanned platform, announced in 2012. When that collaboration stalled, as British want more of a recon platform whereas the French desire a strike platform, the European consortium, led by Airbus and Dassault, announced their own Future Combat Air System. A future European manned fighter jet. Basically, up to three different programs bear the very same name.
Why "up to three"? Because since then it seems the British have changed their FCAS to denote a family of development programs. And it may very well include whatever unmanned plane they plan to develop. As well as a manned fighter jet. Both of which are somewhat being developed by Team Tempest.
Why "somewhat"? Because all this so far is just political posturing. There is no actual significant funding. There is no one concept chosen. There is no contract for development nor an actual development team. Not for the unmanned FCAS plane or the manned "Team Tempest" fighter.
In 2016 British and French governments declared they would invest more than $2 billion into unmanned FCAS development. To date, that contract hasn't been signed. And it looks as if it may not happen. Similarly, during the Combat Air Strategy announcement, UK said it will commit £2 billion by 2025 into developing technologies for its next manned fighter jet.
Let us also go a bit into history. Before Eurofighter happened, British aerospace industry produced several concepts which they learned through, even if none of them flew. P.110 was just one of them. A design, and a mockup, of a plane that was tasked to do what later Eurofighter would do. But it never got made.
Requirements and technologies change over time. Business partners change, and with them new requirements emerge. Just as it happened with Eurofighter consortium countries. And just as it is almost inevitable to happen with future British fighter. Development of a new manned plane, especially if it features bleeding edge tech, is hugely expensive. Tens of billions of dollars. Likelihood of Britain choosing to finance it by itself is close to nil. There was already a mention by UK officials along the line of "If Sweden's SAAB wants to cooperate with us on this project, we welcome them".
UK aerospace industry has also been in touch, at government level, with Turkey and Japan, concerning development of various fighter jets in those countries. While geopolitics may or may not actually allow such cooperation to bear fruit, it is quite likely UK is actively looking for someone to co-finance their next future fighter jet.
And just what kind of fighter jet would it need? Team Tempest mockup was pretty clear about it. Advanced, stealthy plane. Modular internally held payload, for either missiles, lasers or other subsystems like recon. Advanced engines featuring variable cycle tech. Meaning the engine can behave both like a turbojet (good for supersonic speeds) and turbofan (good for subsonic speeds). Basically, even US only plans to feature such engines in their future planes, so that particular tech is very much bleeding edge.
Preliminary timetable announced so far cites 2025 as program definition stage, at which point the funding would be secured. And then actual development contract may be signed, with a hoped-for initial operational capability being declared in 2035 for Royal Air Force. All those are fairly realistic schedules, considering how long it took to develop and field F-22, Eurofighter or F-35.
But finance is key. With Airbus and Dassault announcing their own fighter jet, that may not leave a lot of partners for the UK to woo. Airbus and Dassault, if they make a jet, would basically cover the needs of French, German, Spanish and possibly Italian air force needs. Pretty much every other European country that might be interested in co-financing development of a next generation fighter jet.
To be fair, the Franco-German jet proposal is equally as much vaporware as Team Tempest mockup is. Dassault has a bunch of digital concepts. Airbus has some too. They showed some images, but it's all very much just speculation on their part, mostly artwork, really.
To further show it's just one of many solutions, there has also been a different concept released by Dassault at similar timeframe. Basically, it's all promotion right now, for all sides involved.
Airbus and Dassault have signed letters of intent, basically just an outline for desire to cooperate, where they want to make a plane to succeed Rafale and Eurofighter by 2040. They also said France would be the leading nation when it comes to development. In their letter, they expressed hope to launch the study this year. That would include making some demonstrator airframes by 2025.
They also called on "other European countries" to join the project. That may or may not include UK. Of course, history tells us too many sides just can't work well. Eurofighter project once had France in it. But they couldn't get along well with the British so they went alone and made Rafale. The requirements were just too different. Once again, British and French requirements may differ a lot. British will have F-35, a good stealthy multirole plane. Their replacement needs will be for a more fighter oriented platform. French will need a multirole plane like F-35, just like Rafale is multirole. Furthermore, French will probably need a carrier capable variant, which may influence the design. The British will not desire that. (that same requirement issue was one of the sticking points in 1980s, when France exited Eurofighter program)
To sum it up, we will not see anything resembling the final form of fighter jets for another 5 to 10 years. (Development delays included) And geopolitics and future financial situations for all parties involved may change the programs further. Perhaps some of the partners will simply drop out and buy F-35s. Perhaps a new big partner will emerge for the UK and steer the needs in their direction. Maybe even the British will fold and just join the Airbus/Dassault. Who knows?
Safe to say, whatever does fly as a real prototype in 2025-2035 timeframe in Europe, it may very well look different from the concept arts and mockups seen this year. The future is not now. And it is not set.
BAE Systems, which makes a lot of subsystems for F-35, which co-designed Eurofighter and which made several hi-tech demonstrator planes or stealthy mockups, like the Taranis UAV and Replica mockup.
Leonardo, Italian company which makes M-346 trainer plane, various helicopters and most importantly for Team Tempest, various avionics.
Rolls-Royce, which co-designed the engine for the Eurofighter, and is one of the world's leading engine manufacturers.
MBDA, a multinational company (mostly owned by BAE and Leonardo) which develops various missile systems.
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| Team Tempest fighter jet mockup |
They showed a mock up of a fighter plane without a name. Erroneously, people are calling the fighter "Tempest". (That name may happen some day, but right now it is premature) The unveiling was really a part of UK Ministry of Defence announcement of their Combat Air Strategy. That document talks about various future developments.
(Document available here: UK Mod Combat Air Strategy)
What it does also show is that Team Tempest is a team made by UK MoD, comprised not only of said defense companies, but also of personnel from RAF Rapid Capabilities Office and UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory. It was tasked to develop concepts and later on technologies for Future Combat Air System initiative, back in 2015.
Perhaps a bit confusingly, same name was used for a Franco-British unmanned platform, announced in 2012. When that collaboration stalled, as British want more of a recon platform whereas the French desire a strike platform, the European consortium, led by Airbus and Dassault, announced their own Future Combat Air System. A future European manned fighter jet. Basically, up to three different programs bear the very same name.
Why "up to three"? Because since then it seems the British have changed their FCAS to denote a family of development programs. And it may very well include whatever unmanned plane they plan to develop. As well as a manned fighter jet. Both of which are somewhat being developed by Team Tempest.
Why "somewhat"? Because all this so far is just political posturing. There is no actual significant funding. There is no one concept chosen. There is no contract for development nor an actual development team. Not for the unmanned FCAS plane or the manned "Team Tempest" fighter.
In 2016 British and French governments declared they would invest more than $2 billion into unmanned FCAS development. To date, that contract hasn't been signed. And it looks as if it may not happen. Similarly, during the Combat Air Strategy announcement, UK said it will commit £2 billion by 2025 into developing technologies for its next manned fighter jet.
Let us also go a bit into history. Before Eurofighter happened, British aerospace industry produced several concepts which they learned through, even if none of them flew. P.110 was just one of them. A design, and a mockup, of a plane that was tasked to do what later Eurofighter would do. But it never got made.
 |
| P.110 proposal, circa 1979. |
Requirements and technologies change over time. Business partners change, and with them new requirements emerge. Just as it happened with Eurofighter consortium countries. And just as it is almost inevitable to happen with future British fighter. Development of a new manned plane, especially if it features bleeding edge tech, is hugely expensive. Tens of billions of dollars. Likelihood of Britain choosing to finance it by itself is close to nil. There was already a mention by UK officials along the line of "If Sweden's SAAB wants to cooperate with us on this project, we welcome them".
UK aerospace industry has also been in touch, at government level, with Turkey and Japan, concerning development of various fighter jets in those countries. While geopolitics may or may not actually allow such cooperation to bear fruit, it is quite likely UK is actively looking for someone to co-finance their next future fighter jet.
And just what kind of fighter jet would it need? Team Tempest mockup was pretty clear about it. Advanced, stealthy plane. Modular internally held payload, for either missiles, lasers or other subsystems like recon. Advanced engines featuring variable cycle tech. Meaning the engine can behave both like a turbojet (good for supersonic speeds) and turbofan (good for subsonic speeds). Basically, even US only plans to feature such engines in their future planes, so that particular tech is very much bleeding edge.
Preliminary timetable announced so far cites 2025 as program definition stage, at which point the funding would be secured. And then actual development contract may be signed, with a hoped-for initial operational capability being declared in 2035 for Royal Air Force. All those are fairly realistic schedules, considering how long it took to develop and field F-22, Eurofighter or F-35.
But finance is key. With Airbus and Dassault announcing their own fighter jet, that may not leave a lot of partners for the UK to woo. Airbus and Dassault, if they make a jet, would basically cover the needs of French, German, Spanish and possibly Italian air force needs. Pretty much every other European country that might be interested in co-financing development of a next generation fighter jet.
To be fair, the Franco-German jet proposal is equally as much vaporware as Team Tempest mockup is. Dassault has a bunch of digital concepts. Airbus has some too. They showed some images, but it's all very much just speculation on their part, mostly artwork, really.
 |
Shown Airbus next gen fighter concept art
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| Dassault's concept art |
They also called on "other European countries" to join the project. That may or may not include UK. Of course, history tells us too many sides just can't work well. Eurofighter project once had France in it. But they couldn't get along well with the British so they went alone and made Rafale. The requirements were just too different. Once again, British and French requirements may differ a lot. British will have F-35, a good stealthy multirole plane. Their replacement needs will be for a more fighter oriented platform. French will need a multirole plane like F-35, just like Rafale is multirole. Furthermore, French will probably need a carrier capable variant, which may influence the design. The British will not desire that. (that same requirement issue was one of the sticking points in 1980s, when France exited Eurofighter program)
To sum it up, we will not see anything resembling the final form of fighter jets for another 5 to 10 years. (Development delays included) And geopolitics and future financial situations for all parties involved may change the programs further. Perhaps some of the partners will simply drop out and buy F-35s. Perhaps a new big partner will emerge for the UK and steer the needs in their direction. Maybe even the British will fold and just join the Airbus/Dassault. Who knows?
Safe to say, whatever does fly as a real prototype in 2025-2035 timeframe in Europe, it may very well look different from the concept arts and mockups seen this year. The future is not now. And it is not set.
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